From: Subject: BLUE: Feature Date: Sat, 4 Dec 2004 12:48:35 -0800 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4D9FF.9151C6C0"; type="text/html" X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft MimeOLE V6.00.2800.1441 This is a multi-part message in MIME format. ------=_NextPart_000_0000_01C4D9FF.9151C6C0 Content-Type: text/html; charset="Windows-1252" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Content-Location: file://C:\Z-BN%20(fresh)\Article%20-%20Magazine\nitzan_bichler2.html BLUE: Feature
from 16 = february=20 2003
blue vol II, #70
Feature=20 Archive =

 

"It's About The Oil" =

by Jonathan=20 Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler=20



February 2003



The=20 Conventional Wisdom=20

If there is any agreement among the pundits, this = surely must=20 be it: the coming war on Iraq will be fought largely over = oil. The gist of the argument is simple enough, and can = be=20 summarized as follows:=20

  • In order to continue growing, the world economy needs = plenty=20 of cheap oil=20

  • The OPEC cartel stands in the way of that goal. For = years, its=20 members have manipulated output to keep prices high=20

  • Now, there is finally an opportunity to change the = rules of=20 the game, perhaps even to make the oil cartel irrelevant=20

  • The entry point is Iraq. The country, says George Bush = Jr.,=20 has become a =91global threat.=92 It supports terrorism, = it has=20 weapons of mass destruction, and it has a ruler = unscrupulous=20 enough to use them. In the age of =91preventive = strikes,=92 these are=20 sufficient reasons to invade thy neighbor=20

  • Once victorious, the invading armies will install a = new, more=20 friendly leader. This ruler will adopt a new energy = policy,=20 hostile to OPEC and friendly to the United States and the = West.=20 And since Iraq has 11 per cent of the world=92s crude oil = reserves=20 and the ability to pump out plenty of it, the days of high = oil=20 prices will soon be over=20



The=20 Economist of London expresses this logic as follows: =91America=92s = chief interest in=20 going after Iraq=92s president, Saddam Hussein, is doubtless to = save the=20 world from his actual or potential weapons of mass destruction. = Another=20 large consideration, secondary as it may be, has attracted less = attention=20 than it should have: the effects that would follow from the = opening up of=20 the country's enormous reserves of oil. . . . It might seem, then, = that=20 knocking out Mr Hussein would kill two birds with one stone: a = dangerous=20 dictator would be gone, and with him would go the cartel that for = years=20 has manipulated prices, engineered embargoes and otherwise harmed=20 consumers'. [1]=20

The Middle East presently accounts for 65 per cent of the = world=92s=20 proven oil reserves and 30 per cent of its day to day production - = and the=20 figures are only expected to grow in the coming decades. According = to=20 Professor Anthony Cordesman of the Washington Center for Strategic = and=20 International Studies, these facts lead to a simple conclusion. = Given that=20 U.S. prosperity depends on global prosperity, he says, and since = global=20 prosperity depends on free access to Middle East oil reserves, it = follows=20 that the Gulf region, where most of this oil comes from, must be = treated=20 as =91a = truly vital=20 American strategic interest=92. The United States, he = continues, is=20 the only country with the political, economic and military power = to secure=20 this global (read national) interest, and it should therefore take = direct=20 responsibility through direct involvement in the region [2]=20

Radical writers generally agree that the United States is = after=20 oil, although many of them add that the pursuit of energy is part = of a=20 larger game-plan whose aim is not economic prosperity per se, but = power.=20 =91What = the world is now=20 facing,=92 write the editors of Monthly Review, = =91is the = prospect of a major=20 new development in the history of imperialism.=92 =91Direct U.S. = access to oil=20 and the profits of U.S. oil corporations,=92 they maintain, = =91are not = enough by themselves=20 to explain overriding U.S. interests in the Middle East. Rather = the United=20 States sees the whole region as a crucial part of its strategy of = global=20 power'. [3]=20

The Catch=20

These views all ring true. Without oil, the world economy = will=20 certainly come to a halt; capitalism will fall into a serious = crisis; and=20 U.S. hegemony would be dealt a serious, perhaps mortal blow. That = much is=20 obvious.=20

But then these same arguments could have been made - and = were made=20 - in the 1960s, in the 1970s and in the 1980s. So why the sudden = return to=20 old-style =91imperialism=92?=20

Indeed, the whole situation seems paradoxical. During the = 1970s,=20 when the Middle East accounted for nearly 40 per cent of global = output=20 (compared with only 30 per cent today), the United States and = Europe=20 actually moved in the opposite direction, allowing local rulers to = nationalize their oil resources and to kick out Western oil = companies. In=20 other words, these governments tolerated a blatant attack on = =91private=20 property=92 - and tolerate it they did despite the fact that the = property in=20 question belonged to the world=92s most powerful firms, and that = OPEC=92s=20 obvious intention was to raise the price of oil.=20

By comparison, the current situation seems far less = menacing.=20 Judging by the real price of oil, which kept falling for the past = twenty=20 years, OPEC has been rather ineffective. In 1999, when the price = of oil=20 plunged to $10 a barrel, The Economist confidently stated = that =91the=20 world is awash with oil, and it is likely to remain so. [4]=20

Under these circumstances, and assuming it is indeed =91all about = oil=92,=20 shouldn=92t the cartel be left alone to pursue its futile = maneuvers? Or=20 perhaps OPEC=92s ineffectiveness is precisely the problem?=20

Much of the confusion stems from two mistaken assumptions: = first,=20 that OPEC had =91expropriated=92 the oil companies and that these = companies=20 now want to =91reclaim=92 their lost concessions, and second, that = Western=20 governments want nothing more than low oil prices. As it turns = out, the=20 situation is a bit more complicated.=20

The Global=20 Politics of Oil

Start with OPEC and the companies. In the 1970s, the latter = indeed=20 lost their drilling concessions to the former. But oil companies = aren=92t=20 interested in drilling concessions, they are interested in profit. = And=20 here OPEC gave them something really precious: a 10-fold = increase in=20 the real price of oil between 1970 and 1980. The oil companies = could=20 never have achieved this pricing feat on their own. And what a = feat it=20 was: it made their profits rise 5-fold in just ten years!

The converging interests of OPEC and the oil companies are=20 illustrated in Figure 1.=20

The chart shows the profits of the world=92s =91Petro = Core=92 consisting=20 of the six largest private oil companies: British Petroleum, = Chevron,=20 Exxon, Mobil, Royal/Dutch Shell and Texaco [5].=20 It also shows the oil revenues earned by OPEC governments. The = positive=20 correlation is obvious and needs no further elaboration. What was = good for=20 OPEC was also good for the oil companies, and vice versa.=20

And indeed, the oil companies quickly realized they had no = reason=20 to fuss over oil fields and drilling rights. On the contrary, it = was much=20 better to have the cartel manage output and take on the criticism = for the=20 =91energy crisis.=92=20

Naturally, the oil companies insisted they had nothing to = do with=20 the ploy. They were merely =91interested by-standers,=92 as one = famous analyst=20 put it. They simply happened to be in the right place at the right = time.=20 Their profits were huge, sure, but they were =91windfall = profits,=92 the=20 result of an accidental bliss.=20

As experts would later show, this picture was a bit = distorted, to=20 put it mildly. There was in fact vast technical, business and = political=20 cooperation between OPEC and the companies. But then, since this = type of=20 research rarely made it to the popular media, most people, = although often=20 suspecting the oil companies, never really knew why. [6]=20

Of course, whether or not they knew about it, ordinary = people=20 suffered greatly from this mischievous arrangement. During the = 1970s and=20 early 1980s, higher oil prices have thrown the world into a = stagflationary=20 spiral of rising prices together with contracting output and = soaring=20 unemployment. But then, suffering doesn=92t give you a say in the = global=20 political economy of oil. Power does.=20

From Crisis to=20 Prices

As noted earlier, there is a popular belief that Western=20 governments, representing the =91national interest,=92 are keen on = having low=20 oil prices. The problem with this view is that those who = articulate the=20 =91national interest=92 often tailor it to their own ends. Or = better still,=20 they articulate it in words, but ignore it in deeds.=20

During the 1970s and 1980s, the =91national interest=92 of = the United=20 States was dominated by a =91Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition=92 = made of=20 large armament, oil and financial companies. The long tentacles of = this=20 coalition have become difficult to disentangle from the various=20 apparatuses of the state. Their representatives sat in White = House; they=20 had their envoys in various branches of the government and the = army to=20 whom they supplied weapons; they paid taxes and received subsidies = (with=20 the latter often exceeding the former); they financed political = campaigns;=20 they influenced and often determined policy; they owned various = media=20 outlets. The list goes on.=20

This coalition had an interest in high oil prices. It = couldn=92t=20 admit it openly, of course, and the U.S. government never tired of = reiterating its =91commitment=92 to cheap energy. But when it came = to the=20 United States=92 actual foreign policies, particularly in the = Middle East,=20 the effect was generally to raise prices, not lower them.=20

After the end of the Vietnam Conflict, the main =91hot = spot=92 of the=20 Cold War shifted to the Middle East. The United States and the = Soviet=20 Union, aided by numerous other countries, supplied massive amounts = of=20 weapons to the region (invariably in the interest of = =91stabilization=92). The=20 regional arms race made the U.S. military contractors rich, and = with a=20 succession of hawkish presidents in office - from Richard Nixon, = to Gerald=20 Ford, to Ronald Reagan - the contractors found it easy to keep = that race=20 going. Even the conciliatory Jimmy Carter, whose 1976-80 term in = office=20 briefly broke the bellicosity chain, couldn=92t buck the trend.=20

Conflict and war in the region had a profound impact on = oil. It is=20 important to note that during the 1970s and 1980s, there was never = any=20 real =91shortage=92 of oil in the world [7].=20 Indeed, from a purely =91economic=92 perspective, the price of oil = should have=20 tumbled. But the region was =91in flames,=92 with cyclical = hostilities=20 nourished by Western and Eastern weapons and hyped up relentlessly = by the=20 media. Oil, although plentiful throughout the period, was made to = look=20 =91scarce=92 and =91vulnerable.=92 The price of oil was raised and = kept high,=20 OPECs oil revenues soared and the oil companies grew fabulously = rich.=20

Reversal of=20 fortune

By the mid 1980s, the tide finally began to turn. Communism = was on=20 its last leg; developing countries had become =91emerging = markets=92 open to=20 western investment; the high-tech mania started to gather = momentum; and=20 the winds of neoliberalism began blowing stronger and stronger.=20

The Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition was increasingly = challenged=20 by a new =91Technodollar-Mergerdollar Coalition=92 geared toward = high-tech,=20 global expansion and corporate mergers. For this new coalition, = high=20 energy prices were a threat. They spoiled business confidence and = growth=20 in =91emerging markets,=92 they upset capital mobility, and they = interfered=20 with the hyping up of the stock market.=20

The growing strength of the new coalition became evident as = early=20 as 1991. George Bush Sr., a Weapondollar-Petrodollar loyalist who = had just=20 orchestrated a major international war, was more or less forced to = announce the dawn of a =91new world order=92 of peace. His = successor, Bill=20 Clinton, was already a declared =91peacenik=92 who moved swiftly = toward=20 resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict. The shift from war profits to = peace=20 dividends was now in full swing.=20

The effect of this shift on the armament and oil interests = was=20 devastating. During the 1990s, world military budgets fell by over = a third=20 in real terms, arms exports went into a tail spin, and the large = armament=20 contractors were reduced to a mere shadow of their past glory.=20

The oil companies suffered a similar fate. Figure 2 = [below]=20 shows the relationship between their net profit and the price of = oil.=20 During the early 1980s, crude prices expressed in today=92s = dollars exceeded=20 $80 a barrel. For the world, this was the height of the =91energy = crisis.=92=20 For the oil companies, it was the peak of the =91energy boom=92: = their=20 earnings reached nearly 20 per cent of all global corporate = profit.=20

But from then on, it was all downhill. The lingering = Iraq-Iran War=20 of 1980-88, the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, the 1986 bombing = of=20 Libya, the mid 1980s =91tanker war=92 in the Gulf - the 1990/91 = Gulf War all=20 helped to slow down the slide, but they didn=92t stop it. And as = prices fell=20 so did profits. The abyss was reached at the end of Clinton=92s = presidency.=20 In 2000, oil prices tumbled to $14 a barrel in today=92s dollars, = and the=20 share of oil companies in global profit fell to less than 3 per = cent -=20 their lowest ever.=20

Toward a new war=20

Something had to be done, and quickly. The = Weapondollar-Petrodollar=20 Coalition assailed the White House with all its guns blazing. They = spared=20 no effort. Massive financial support, legal pressures, electoral=20 maneuvers, deceit and outright forgery were all brought to bear. = In the=20 end the coalition managed to have George Bush Jr. put in office.=20

The Bush family ties to the U.S. business elite, including = the=20 Harrimans, Morgans and Rockefellers among others, go back to Bert = Walker,=20 George Bush Jr.=92s great-grandfather. Over the years, the family = has come=20 to occupy, through ownership and managerial posts, various = strategic=20 positions in railroads, finance, oil and armament. It also placed = itself=20 well in the seats of government, state security and military = procurement.=20 In addition to God and the mighty dollar, the family has retained = a strong=20 belief in white supremacy, especially the supremacy of the Eastern = seaboard elites. It has also entertained close links to far-right = and=20 neo-Nazi groups within the Republican party [8].=20 With this background, George Bush Jr., although not the brightest = of the=20 lot, was certainly fit for the task of reinstating the=20 Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition.=20

The main excuse was September 11. The U.S. immediately = started=20 beating the war drums, and within a month invaded Afghanistan in = search=20 for the ghostly Bin Laden. It didn=92t find him there, but the = price of oil=20 kept rising. In parallel, and in sharp contrast to his White House = predecessor, Bush Jr. gave Ariel Sharon a carte blanche to deal = with the=20 Palestinians as he saw fit. The resulting escalation contributed = further=20 to the feeling that the region was again in flames, and that oil = was once=20 more likely to become =91scarce.=92 These developments, together = with a timely=20 oil strike in Venezuela and the prospect for an imminent attack on = Iraq,=20 helped send the price of oil soaring to over $30 a barrel and = raise oil=20 profit to nearly 7 per cent of the world total (see Figure = 2).=20

Imperialism=20

Now let=92s think about the meaning of all of this. As we = have seen,=20 the oil companies have just begun climbing from the abyss. To = continue=20 their ascent, they need higher oil prices, and the most effective = way of=20 raising these prices is to have another Middle East conflict. = Similarly=20 for the armament companies. If they are to remain viable in a = unipolar=20 world, they will need new wars, and quickly. Luck has it, and = these two=20 groups now have their most friendly president ever in the White = House. And=20 this friendly president is ready, in fact eager, to send his army = to fight=20 Iraq, with or without UN approval.=20

For the Weapondollar-Petrodollar Coalition, the new war is = indeed=20 about oil, but not in the way most people think. The interest of = this=20 coalition lies not in stabilizing the region and making oil = plentiful and=20 cheap, but on the contrary, in maintaining instability, in making = oil look=20 scarce and in raising its price higher.=20

Interestingly, large firms outside the = Weapondollar-Petrodollar=20 Coalition - that is, companies with no direct connection to = armament and=20 oil - haven=92t voiced any real opposition to the war. This = silence is=20 rather strange, to say the least. Don=92t the Microsofts, General = Motors and=20 Vivendis of the world stand to lose from higher energy cost and = the global=20 stagnation which is almost sure to follow? Furthermore, if oil = prices and=20 oil profits were to rise, wouldn=92t these companies lose their = primacy=20 relative to the Exxons and Lockheed Martins? Perhaps, but this = relative=20 reordering may be a cheap price to pay for the benefits to be had. =

As it turns out, the biggest threat facing large firms at = the=20 moment is deflation. The global debt burden is the highest = ever in=20 history - roughly twice what it was on the eve of the Great = Depression. Corporate pricing power, on the other hand, is perhaps = the=20 weakest since the Depression. Under these circumstances, if = disinflation=20 were to give way to falling prices, the specter of chain=20 bankruptcies and debt deflation could make the Great Depression = look like=20 child=92s play. Given this risk, any move toward higher inflation = - even if=20 accompanied by stagnation - is to be warmly welcomed.=20

Now, since the late 1960s, higher oil prices have = always=20 triggered higher inflation. And the =91mechanism=92 continues to = operate like=20 clockwork: since 1999, world inflation trailed the gyrations of = oil prices=20 with almost religious devotion. Thus, if oil prices continue to = rise,=20 inflation will most likely follow; this would in turn remove the = specter=20 of deflation, and the large companies could sound a big sigh of = relief.=20 For these companies there would also be an icing on the cake. = Inflation=20 usually works to redistribute income from labor to capital and = from small=20 firms to larger ones. It will therefore make the leading companies = better=20 off relatively, if not absolutely.=20

The most ambivalent of the lot are probably the OPEC = governments.=20 The explicit shift toward interventionism on part of the United = States and=20 its Western allies must be worrying for them. Theirs is the only=20 international cartel which managed to obtain some degree of = autonomy from=20 Western influence, and this autonomy is now in great danger. On = the other=20 hand, part of the cartel=92s weakness stems precisely from its = inability to=20 keep prices high, something which a new conflict managed by direct = U.S.=20 intervention may help rectify. The only ones for whom there seems = to be no=20 ambiguity are the rest of us. The new wars, fought in the name of = security=20 and prosperity, are likely to bring neither.=20

=96 =  Jonathan Nitzan & Shimshon Bichler=20


Shimshon Bichler teaches political economy at = Israeli=20 universities. Jonathan Nitzan teaches political economy at = York=20 University, Canada. Their book, The Global Political = Economy of=20 Israel (2002) is published by Pluto Press.=20



The = Global Political=20 Economy of Israel
by Jonathan Nitzan and Shimshon=20 Bichler
Pluto Press
LONDON =95 STERLING, = VIRGINIA
First=20 published 2002 by Pluto Press
345 Archway Road, London N6 = 5AA
and 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, = USA
http://www.plutobooks.com/
Copyright = =A9 Jonathan=20 Nitzan and Shimshon Bichler 2002
The right of Jonathan = Nitzan and=20 Shimshon Bichler to be identified as the authors of this = work has=20 been asserted by them in accordance with the Copyright, = Designs and=20 Patents Act 1988.
British Library Cataloguing in = Publication=20 Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from = the=20 British Library
ISBN 0 7453 1676 X hardback
ISBN 0 = 7453 1675 1=20 paperback=20

See review, at Monthly Review=20

Footnotes:=20

  1. =91Don't Mention the O-Word - Iraq's Oil. How Would an = American=20 Strike Affect Oil Reserves, and OPEC?=92 The = Economist,=20 September 14, 2002, pp. 25-27.=20

  2. Anthony Cordesman, =91The U.S. = Military=20 and the Evolving Challenges in the Middle East.=92 = Naval War=20 College Review, 2002, LV (3, Summer): 72-112=20

  3. The Editors. =91U.S. Imperial = Ambitions=20 and Iraq.=92 Monthly Review, 2002, Vol. 54, = December.=20

  4. =91Drowning In Oil.=92 The = Economist,=20 March 6, 1999, pp. 19.=20

  5. As a consequence of merger, = the =91Petro=20 Core=92 has now been reduced to four companies: British = Petroleum,=20 Royal Dutch/Shell, Exxon-Mobil and Texaco-Chevron.=20

  6. For two of the most thorough = works on=20 the subject, see Anthony Sampson, The Seven Sisters: = The Great=20 Oil Companies and the World They Shaped (New York: = Viking=20 Press, 1975) and John M. Blair, The Control of Oil = (New=20 York: Vintage Books, 1976).=20

  7. If oil prices were indeed = determined by=20 physical =91scarcity,=92 one would expect during periods = of rising=20 prices to see inventories squeezed by the =91shortage.=92 = In=20 1970-1980, however, as oil prices soared, global oil = inventories=20 continuously increased! (based on data from the BP=20 Statistical Review of World Energy).=20

  8. See Webster G. Tarpley and = Anton=20 Chaitkin, George Bush: The Unauthorized Biography=20 (Executive Intelligence Review, 1991). http://www.tarpley.net/bushb.htm =

=


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